Global agencies slash India's growth projection, to remain fastest growing economy

India’s economic growth outlook for the financial year 2025-26 has been trimmed by up to 0.5 percentage points by leading global financial institutions. Despite this, the consensus remains firm—India will continue to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy in the face of mounting global economic uncertainties.

Agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and credit rating firms including Fitch, S&P, and Moody’s have all revised their projections downward, citing a combination of global factors including a potential recession in the United States, a slowdown in China, and tepid global trade momentum amid tariff tensions and geopolitical instability.

The IMF now expects India’s economy to grow at 6.2% in FY26, down from its earlier January estimate of 6.5%. The World Bank has revised its projection to 6.3% from 6.7%. Similarly, the ADB has downgraded its forecast from 7% to 6.7%. These updated projections were released in April in response to weakening global economic indicators.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in its March forecast, projected India’s growth at 6.4%, reduced from an earlier 6.9%. Fitch Ratings echoed the OECD with a similar estimate, while S&P Global maintained its projection at 6.5%. Moody’s Analytics, which provides forecasts based on calendar years, expects India to grow at 6.1% in 2025.

Despite the moderation in projections, the Indian economy still enjoys a strong standing globally. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its growth forecast at 6.5% for the current year, aligning with the government’s Economic Survey, which estimated growth in the 6.3–6.8% range for FY26.